Author Topic: Who's next?  (Read 6794 times)

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Offline chrisild

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Re: Who's next?
« Reply #15 on: January 12, 2018, 12:00:48 AM »
Bulgaria plans to join the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM-II) some time this year - the antechamber of the currency union so to say. (Currently the Bulgarian currency is unilaterally tied to the euro.) According to finance minister Vladislav Goranov, the application will come in the first half of this year - that is, in the six months of the Bulgarian presidency of the Council of the European Union. More here for example.

Now whether this is just hot presidency air ;) or more remains to be seen. Even if the Bulgarian lev joined the ERM-II in mid-2018, it would stay there at least until mid-2020.

Christian

Offline Figleaf

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Re: Who's next?
« Reply #16 on: January 12, 2018, 07:07:47 PM »
Very interesting and excellent fun. I had a look at Bulgarian economic indicators. They looked much better than I thought. Per capita PPP GDP is climbing nicely, inflation is low, unemployment (below 7%) also, balance of payments looks fine, gov't budget is in deficit, but looks manageable and debt to GDP is just below 25%! I'd like a stern audit of those figures to prevent another Greece from happening, but otherwise this looks excellent, especially for a country that has a history of economic weakness. You are right that it may be just hot air, but the stats say they can do it if they want to, especially if they take their time.

Peter
An unidentified coin is a piece of metal. An identified coin is a piece of history.

Offline chrisild

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Re: Who's next?
« Reply #17 on: January 12, 2018, 10:04:09 PM »
One problem that Bulgaria has, apparently to a higher degree than most other member states, is corruption and a lack of transparency. We will see whether that issue has any influence on the decision to let the lev into ERM-II ...

What I do appreciate is the signal that the presidency sends with regard to the currency union. You would certainly not hear anything like that from Warsaw, Prague or Budapest (and judging from how the governments act there, this is probably good for the euro area), but here we have a government that basically says Yes. :)

Christian