Author Topic: Analysing a coin series to predict currency redenomination  (Read 645 times)

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Offline Pabitra

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Re: Analysing a coin series to predict currency redenomination
« Reply #30 on: July 16, 2020, 04:00:05 PM »
I'd argue that it is important information for collectors to know which coins actually circulated.

Yes, in normal times, it should hold good.
In present case, we are discussing extremely high inflation periods, on the cusp on remonetisation.

The coins might have been minted for circulation but did not circulate.

We are excluding silver and gold coins else, France issues a gold coin with denomination of 1000€ and issues at face value. Does it make it a circulation coin? Its mintage is against specific order and rarely does it go above two digits.

That brings us to mintage data to be used as definition of circulation vs non circulating.

Another aspect is design. Does it show an event or a person being celebrated? Also does it get minted in more than one year?

All these aspects need to be kept in mind before deciding whether it is a circulation coin.

Another aspect I really check is that is the denomination a normal jump over the previous high denomination? Pakistan 550 Rupees base metal coin jumps over the previous high of 10 Rupees circulation coin. What is your opinion on that?

In case of circulation coin being difficult to obtain, I will quote two examples.

Nigeria issued three coins in 2006. Before they got issued, they had become worthless and persons withdrawing cash from banks were forced to accept a part payment in coins.

Venezuela demonetised its currency in 2018 and issued two coins of Bolivar Soberano ( VES) but before issuing, the metal cost had gone much above the face value so after issuing for few days, balance were never issued and melted. Did they circulate even if they were circulation coins?

More example could be quoted but these should suffice.

Offline andyg

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Re: Analysing a coin series to predict currency redenomination
« Reply #31 on: July 16, 2020, 08:36:34 PM »
Whichever way is decided upon there are always exceptions  ;)

The Venezuela and Nigeria sets were intended to be used though, even if in practice they were not.
Whilst you had to make a special effort to get the Turkish coins.

Recently some UK commemorative 50p's, which were only available at a premium were circulated by a coin dealer here.....
always willing to trade modern UK coins for modern coins from elsewhere....

Offline Pabitra

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Re: Analysing a coin series to predict currency redenomination
« Reply #32 on: July 17, 2020, 06:18:31 AM »

Recently some UK commemorative 50p's, which were only available at a premium were circulated by a coin dealer here.....

That makes them circulating commemoratives, at best.

The dealers do tend to reduce their inventory at a loss when the get chance where opportunity cost is more profitable.

The coins under discussion here are general circulation ( or definitive, as some call them, to borrow the term from philately). These are those which are minted in larger numbers ( usually) and for many years and issued by banks or post office at face value.

For countries, which are regular in minting, I track them year by year.

Why has UK 2 Pounds not been issued since 2016?
Is a redesign in offing?

Offline <k>

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Re: Analysing a coin series to predict currency redenomination
« Reply #33 on: July 17, 2020, 01:17:47 PM »
Why has UK 2 Pounds not been issued since 2016?
Is a redesign in offing?

The new 12-sided bimetallic pound coin was released in September 2017. Since that was known already in 2016, presumably masses of new pound coins were issued for a while, and that pushed out the 2 pound coins. Our member Alan71 had complained about the lack of 2 pound coins since then for some time. In fact, I have noticed their return in force in recent months, and I have had two Shakespeare 2 pound coins (each time the 'dagger and crown' design) in the past weeks.

I am still astonished that I have never received a Britannia 2 pound coin since its release in 2015. Apparently many people missed Britannia on the old 50 pence. It seems however that they were nostalgic for that particular 50 pence Britannia design, and I have never heard anybody enthuse about the new design on the 2 pound coin. In fact, it was the Daily Mail that kicked up a fuss back in 2008, so I suspect its readers have quickly moved on to other obsessions and forgotten about the Britannia issue.  :D

You will have read our member eurocoin's recent topic about counterfeit 2 pound coins appearing more frequently. Perhaps it is time to make the 2 pound coin more resistant to forgery, by including some micro-letters, for instance.
Visit the website of The Royal Mint Museum.

See: The Royal Mint Museum.

Offline <k>

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Re: Analysing a coin series to predict currency redenomination
« Reply #34 on: July 18, 2020, 11:20:51 PM »
Romania issued a circulating 500 lei coin in 1998; a 1000 lei in the year 2000; and a 5000 lei in 2001.

In 2005 Romania redenominated its currency, and ban and bani coins were seen again after many decades.
Visit the website of The Royal Mint Museum.

See: The Royal Mint Museum.

Offline Pabitra

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Re: Analysing a coin series to predict currency redenomination
« Reply #35 on: July 19, 2020, 06:36:10 AM »
Perhaps it is time to make the 2 pound coin more resistant to forgery, by including some micro-letters, for instance.

I was seeking Andy's insight on the subject.

Offline andyg

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Re: Analysing a coin series to predict currency redenomination
« Reply #36 on: July 19, 2020, 10:43:20 AM »
I was seeking Andy's insight on the subject.

I don't have anything to add.
<k> has the most likely reason, that issuance of the new £1 coin in vast numbers caused the £2 not to be required.  Forgeries of £2 coins have been around a few years - but they are getting more common.
 
always willing to trade modern UK coins for modern coins from elsewhere....