Denmark: statistics on 20 kroner coins in circulation (dates and types)

[Vincent]

Yesterday, November 9th, I acquired ten rolls of circulated 20 kroner coins from a bank, i.e. 200 coins. I have done a break-down of types and dates. I am making these observations available here, because I thought they might be of interest, especially to foreign collectors.

The coins in the rolls were:

Non-commemoratives:
1990: 66 pcs (33%)
1991: 16 pcs (8%)
1993: 1 pc (0.5%)
1994: 8 pcs (4%)
1996: 17 pcs (8.5%)
1998: 9 pcs (4.5%)
1999: 5 pcs (2.5%)
2001: 12 pcs (6%)
2002: 5 pcs (2.5%)
2003: 6 pcs (3%)
2004: 5 pcs (2.5%)
2005: 8 pcs (4%)
2006: 4 pcs (2%)
2007: 6 pcs (3%)
2008: 2 pcs (1%)
2009: 0 pcs (0%)
2010: 0 pcs (0%)
2011: 0 pcs (0%)
2012: 0 pcs (0%)
2013: 0 pcs (0%)
2014: 3 pcs (1.5%)
2015: 1 pc (0.5%)
2016: 1 pc (0.5%)
2017: 5 pcs (2.5%)

Commemorative and thematic coins:
2003 tower series – Christiansborg: 3 pcs (1.5%)
2004 tower series – Gåsetårnet: 1 pc (0.5%)
2006 tower series – Gråsten Castle: 1 pc (0.5%)
2006 tower series – Tre Brødre: 2 pcs (1%)
2007 ship series – Vædderen: 1 pc (0.5%)
2007 tower series – Copenhagen city hall: 3 pcs (1.5%)
2008 ship series – Selandia: 1 pc (0.5%)
2008 ship series – Dannebrog: 2 pcs (1%)
2011 ship series – Hjejlen: 1 pc (0.5%)
2012 reign anniversary: 1 pc (0.5%)
2013 scientist series – Niels Bohr: 1 pc (0.5%)
2015 Queen’s birthday: 2 pcs (1%)
2017 royal wedding anniversary: 1 pc (0.5%)

Thus, 180 coins (90%) are non-commemorative and 20 coins (10%) are commemorative.

Notice that no less than 33% of the coins are from the first year, 1990. This is not so strange, as the coins of this year were intended to replace the 20 kroner bank notes in circulation untill the introduction of the coins.

Notice also that the earliest commemorative/thematic coin represented is from 2003, there are none from the 1990s. There seems to have been a shift in the attitude of the general public towards the circulating commemorative/thematic coins, beginning around 2000. The commemorative coins from the 1990s are never found in circulation. They weren't found in circulation back in the 1990s either, in spite of the mintage being generally one million per type, and the coins being released at face value. This means that the interest in these coins from the general public was sufficient to keep the coins effectively out of circulation. More recent commemorative/thematic coins are not uncommon in circulation. This points to a decrease in interest from the general public. I believe that the explanation for this change in attitude is related to the increased frequency in the release of these coins. No less that five specialized thematic series were issued between 2002 and 2013: the tower series, the fairytale series, the ship series, the polar series and the scientist series. The novelty value has simply worn off, and people don't care so much about the commemoratives. I had also been wondering if the royal vs. non-royal factor was at play. All commemorative coins issued between 1888 and 2000 were related to events in the royal family, with the exceptions of the 1953 Greenland charity issue and the 1995 millennium of coinage issue. It could be that there is simply greater interest from a mass audience in royal events than in towers, fairytales, ships, the Arctic and scientists. This probably does play a role, but it's not borne out by observation. The 1995 non-royal commemorative was (and is) practically never seen in circulation, while post-2002 royal commemoratives are certainly found in circulation, as seen in the data above.

[Vincent]

(And I wonder: have I just invented a hybrid between numismatics and sociology?  )

[Globetrotter]

Hej Vincent,

I think you should also include the mintages for each of the coins or at least the percentual relationship of same. As a good Dane you have certainly also in mind that you need around a 1000 to be able to make a reliable statistik? Ask Gallup!

Paa genhoer
Ole

[redlock]

Thanks for this very interesting statistic 

[Vincent]

Globetrotter, your points are well taken. To take a hypothetical scenario, if the coins of the 1990s had low mintages and later coins had high mintages, then it might have been the case that later types circulate because there's more than enough of them and the "excess" quantity ends up in circulation. In that case there would be no indication of decreasing interest from the general public. However, the production numbers for most types are in the 1.000.000 to 1.200.000 range, with the ships and scientists types from 2012 and 2013 representing a low point of around 300.000 per type. Because of this, I don't think the production numbers serve as any explanation for later coins being in circulation and earlier coins being absent.

With regard to your point about the sample size, I think the sample size needed depends on what you're trying to measure. For instance, there was a planet orbiting another star that was detected by measuring a decrease in the amount of light coming from that star when the planet passed in front of it in the amount of one part in ten thousand. If you make an analogy with regard to the coins, you would need at least ten thousand coins in order to simply detect the anomaly. On the other hand, if you're trying to detect something much simpler and much easier to measure, such as the percentage of commemorative coins in the circulating coin mass, then I think this sample gives you at least a rough idea. (By the way, my conclusions in the original post are not based only on the 400 coins sample, they are also informed by decades of real life experience with coins in circulation).

I, for one, would love to see a similar statistic for Japanese 500 yen coins. Based on what I have been told, the commemorative 500 yen coins don't actually circulate, in spite of the great production numbers, so the statistics would probably be 100% non-commemoratives and 0% commemoratives. Then we could have an interesting discussion on that basis. And whether the sample size would be 400 or 4.000 wouldn't make much of a difference in that context.

Edit:
Correction: the size of my sample was 200 coins, not 400.

[Figleaf]

Well done, Vincent. As a stats junkie, let me point out that if you got your rolls all from the same bank, they were likely sourced from local circulation, so you have to be very careful to extrapolate the results to national circulation. I could imagine, for instance that newly minted coins are circulated first in the Copenhagen area, simply because I would expect that most of the demand is there. Your population suggests rather few shiny coins and lots of worn stuff.

BTW, I think Globetrotter was thinking of non-commemoratives when he mentioned mintage. I am a bit weary of the numbers of the numbers for 1990 and 2008 to date. The comparison he suggests may bring it out any issues with the sample more clearly.

It sounds like you are right that demand for commemoratives got over-saturated in the late naughties. Another factor may be inflation: 20 kroner being more used when they were just issued, less used as they became worth less. Electronic payments may also have eaten into demand in the last decade.

What are you going to do with the many duplicates? I imagine there may be some demand for them from those who collect modern coins by date and you should be able to trade the commemoratives away. Foreigners will be far less blasé than Danes about Danish commemoratives.

Peter

[Globetrotter]

Hi,

never trust a stat you didn't manipulate yourself........

I remember when I was studying datalogy (before it was called computer science), I worked in a data center where we ran the statistics for Gallup in Denmark. It was very interesting, but the doubt was always if the population (1065 persons) were really representative for a population of in those days 4.5 million Danes.

Anyway, it happens that I have a huge amount of the same denomination and type from a country, and I do the same as Vincent, and come to my own conclusions, but it's rare, that you even have a 1000 coins of the same type..... Just before Germany and the rest of Europe went for the Euro, I spent some professional time in Cologne (Köln) in Germany and I bought 50 rolls of 1 Pfennig coins one week and then 2 Pf the next and so on. Now Germany is not the easiest, since you also have to take the mint into account. Anyway it was fun, but tiring, sure enough I got very black and dirty fingers. There are still a few years where I don't have all the mints, from my search amongst maybe 10.000 coins from 1948 to 2000. I never put my results into an excel spread sheet, unfortunately.

The bank thought I was crazy, the hotel cleaning personnel likewise, since I told them NOT TO TOUCH my small towers of coins on my desk, when cleaning my room. Lucky enough in those days, you could bring all that change back and put it through a counting machine to get "real" money out of the coins, I didn't want to keep, but needed for the next 50 rolls.....

I did the same in Melbourne, when Australia had the old and new coins running in parallel in 1975. Came back to Europe with some 10 kilos of silver coins! Now they have all been traded away!

In Bombay I made an auditoring of our firm during 6 weeks time. I had an agreement with the bartender in my hotel to let me go through all his coins in the evening!

I have been for longer periods in many countries, and always proceeded in similar ways. Now I have 40.000 different coins in my collection, so it paid off in my humble opinion.

Memories of an old coin collector!

Ole

[redlock]

What are you going to do with the many duplicates? I imagine there may be some demand for them from those who collect modern coins by date and you should be able to trade the commemoratives away. Foreigners will be far less blasé than Danes about Danish commemoratives.

Indeed. If Vincent is interested in trading some of these 20kr coins he is welcomed to contact me. 

[onecenter]

 "...small towers of coins on my desk..."

I thought I was the only one who did that.   Great fun!