Author Topic: Catalonia declares independence  (Read 366 times)

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Offline eurocoin

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Catalonia declares independence
« on: November 16, 2017, 09:49:49 AM »
As we in the meantime all now Catalonia has declared independence from Spain. If they are out of Spain they will end up outside of the eurozone. Countries can however use the euro if they are outside of the eurozone, like Kosovo and Montenegro. It comes with quite some difficulties though. If normal procedures are being followed upon it would take them years to re-enter to the eurozone. In that regard everything of course depends on how badly 'Europe' wants Catalonia to be in the Eurozone. A new currency is also possible. As for the coin minting and printing De La Rue said about that: "Working out the details... is all very well when you have a year or two to think about it. Make that a month or two, and things start to get interesting". They earlier did a new currency for Iraq within 10 weeks and the new currency of South Sudan was done together with the South African Mint in 6 months.

The current situation is still very difficult and unclear so it is still all speculation.

Offline FosseWay

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Re: Catalonia declares independence
« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2017, 10:46:55 AM »
As it stands, Catalonia is not independent, neither de facto nor de jure.

If a proper process for running a referendum is established, and a referendum is then held, and a pro-independence result is achieved, then, and only then, will negotiations begin regarding how/when independence will take place. Extricating Catalonia from Spain (or Scotland from the UK) is a much more complicated process than extricating the UK from the EU, and look how long that's taking.

I'm aware that the European Commission has made various vague pronouncements, both in the context of Catalonia and when Scotland held its referendum in 2014, about a seceding part of an EU member state having to reapply for entry. I suspect that if a region seceded in a controlled way, with the blessing of its erstwhile "parent", a way would be found to keep the region in the EU, and the euro where relevant, from the start. The scaremongering from the EC over Catalonia has more to do with discouraging the Catalans from UDI, I think.

The fastest possible timescale I think is the following:

December 2017: Catalonia elects a new pro-independence government, which forces Madrid to look at changes to the constitution to allow independence referendums.
Q3/Q4 2018: Earliest date for a Spain-wide referendum on constitutional change.
Q2/Q3 2019: Earliest date for a new independence referendum in Catalonia under the new constitutional arrangements.
1.1.2022: Earliest actual independence date (gives 2-ish years to sort the split out. This is similar to what Alex Salmond suggested as a timescale if Scotland had voted Yes in 2014, but this may prove to be optimistic, especially given the experience with Brexit.)

So in short: There won't be any circulation Catalan euros for a while.  :)

Offline Figleaf

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Re: Catalonia declares independence
« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2017, 10:49:51 AM »
For the time being, Madrid has repressed the movement towards independence. However, if Catalonian independence would come about (it seems to me that Madrid's approach has moved that possibility from "extremely unlikely" to "unlikely but you never know"), you can be sure that Madrid would make life as bad as possible for Barcelona (see Greece versus neighbouring Macedonia). They would be unable to get much done in the EU for a generation or two at least and that includes use of the euro.

Peter
An unidentified coin is a piece of metal. An identified coin is a piece of history.

Offline eurocoin

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Re: Catalonia declares independence
« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2018, 04:21:34 PM »
In the meantime we have had yet another election and again the people were very clear about what they want. With them being both in favour of democracy as well as against (parts of) member states leaving the EU, I can imagine some of our members must have a very hard time right now.  ;)

I think Catalonia as independent country within a -yet to be established- Kingdom of Spain isn't an all too bad solution. Certainly not if Catalonia agrees to annually pay X amount for the next X years to Spain to make sure their economy doesn't collapse and the country has sufficient time to somehow fill the gap in their GDP.

Offline chrisild

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Re: Catalonia declares independence
« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2018, 07:10:01 PM »
As for the recent election, see my reply here:
http://www.worldofcoins.eu/forum/index.php/topic,41033.msg259907.html#msg259907

In my opinion, the result reflects what most voters thought or think about Rajoy's way of dealing with the situation. Had Madrid offered serious talks about a higher degree of autonomy, many Catalans would have voted differently. And in a "regular" referendum, I do not think the pro-independence camp would actually win a majority. Then again, the central government is quite likely to (continue to) prevent or obstruct any referendum about Catalonia's independence anyway ...

Christian

Offline FosseWay

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Re: Catalonia declares independence
« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2018, 02:00:23 PM »
And in a "regular" referendum, I do not think the pro-independence camp would actually win a majority.

Yes, this is important. People know that in order for Catalonia to become independent, there must *at the very least* be a referendum asking that question explicitly. (In the specific case of Catalonia, there are numerous other hoops to jump through as well - the simple requirement for a referendum applies better to Scotland.) They can therefore vote for pro-independence parties while not supporting independence in the safe knowledge that the independence activists' prime aim is to a large extent irrelevant. The 2014 Scottish vote and the 2015 election result there prove this. The people of Scotland do not in general want independence, but they have persistently elected the SNP in landslide victories both in the regional parliament, at Westminster and in Brussels. The only reasonable conclusion to draw is that a lot of Scots feel that the SNP does the best job out of all the alternatives available despite its support for independence.

The level of support for the SNP in Scotland is demonstrably fairly unconnected to the independence question. The same goes for the level of support for Brexit in England vs support for UKIP, but in the opposite direction (many people support a particular view on the issue, but few support the one party which has made that stance its flagship policy). I, like you, suspect something similar would happen in Catalonia, especially when the raw memories of 1 October have staled a bit, as they inevitably will.

The Spanish government would do well to quietly drop all the charges for political crimes against the former Catalan government and just let life get back to normal. I strongly doubt they will be sensible enough to do this, though: there seems to be an epidemic of terminal stupidity and pigheadedness running through Western politicians in general at the moment.

Offline Pabitra

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Re: Catalonia declares independence
« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2018, 04:30:07 PM »
Flanders in Belgium has been electing pro-separation ( "Independence" by other words) party for many years but to no avail.
Catalonia case appears to be nearly parallel as they both happens to be richer part of their respective countries.