Author Topic: Scottish euros have come closer  (Read 3558 times)

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Online Figleaf

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Scottish euros have come closer
« on: May 09, 2015, 12:08:48 PM »
In five years' time, we will know if the British voted in favour of Scottish independence. After the last election, the conservatives do not need a coalition partner. There is now nothing left to stop Cameron from his promise to hold the plebiscite on EU membership he promised. He shouldn't even expect mutterings from Brussels. Too many people would be relieved to see the UK go. Latest polls put the "let's leave" vote at 35%, but the number is volatile and has been over 50% regularly.

The problem is that the EU is quite popular in Scotland, where agricultural and regional subsidies have made a real difference and people know it. A vote to leave would enrage the Scots and cost the area dearly. With a recent history of a narrow vote on Scottish independence, the Scots could force another one, this time having the EU decision as an added bone of contention that could easily give the independence vote a majority.

In such a situation, the Spanish position on Scottish membership could change dramatically, as they could frame the whole business as not so much over regional independence but over EU membership. Meanwhile, Cameron has painted himself into a corner by making clear an independent Scotland would not be welcome using GBP. Will we see Scottish euros before 2020?

Peter
An unidentified coin is a piece of metal. An identified coin is a piece of history.

Offline <k>

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Re: Scottish euros have come closer
« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2015, 12:50:12 PM »
Interesting times. Here are the 2010 results in Scotland (number of seats / MPs):

Labour: 41
Liberal Democrats: 11
Scottish National Party: 6
Conservatives: 1



2015 results (Scotland):

Scottish National Party: 56
Conservatives: 1
Labour: 1
Liberal Democrats: 1



So, Scotland is virtually a one-party state now.

After the 2015 election, UKIP still has only one MP in the UK parliament (Westminster). However, because the UK does not use proportional representation, this does not reflect its true support. Apparently UKIP came second in 120 constituencies and third in 364. A curious factor is that many disillusioned Labour and Liberal Democrat voters switched to UKIP. In many cases this will simply have been a protest vote. Likewise, in Scotland some Scots voted SNP because they want greater local democracy for Scotland, or because they were tired of the other parties, but these are probably in the minority. What the UK really needs now is a decent proportional representation system.

The Conservatives now have a majority in the UK parliament, but it's a small one. When John Major had a small majority back in the 1990s, his euro-sceptics gave him trouble. Will Cameron's right-wing now give him trouble? Cameron sees himself as a moderate and probably would not want to leave the EU. I think he made the promise of a referendum for tactical reasons only. It may come back to haunt him.

So, anything could happen in the next 2 to 5 years!

Offline FosseWay

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Re: Scottish euros have come closer
« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2015, 04:11:28 PM »
One comment from <k>'s analysis, which I otherwise broadly agree with: I don't think disaffected Lib Dem voters turned to UKIP. The Lib Dems have been fiercely pro-EU since the start of the whole love-hate thing with Brussels in the run-up to the ratification of the Maastricht treaty in 1992. I doubt whether many people who support UKIP's view on the EU would ever have voted Lib Dem and vice versa. No: most of the "missing" Lib Dem votes went to the Tories in England and to the SNP in Scotland.

The SNP's performance in the election is also not indicative of a desire for independence, for two reasons. Firstly, the SNP got 50% of the vote in Scotland, but 95% of the seats thanks to the backward, undemocratic and morally bankrupt electoral system. 50% of Scots who voted at all voted for some other party, all of which with the exception of the Greens campaigned for No in the referendum. Secondly, Scots know that independence is not going to be thrust upon them without a referendum, regardless of how much of a one-party state the SNP turns Scotland into. Therefore, Scottish supporters of the Union can safely vote for the SNP for other reasons - such as that they agree with the party's left-of-centre policies which are no longer espoused by Labour - confident in the knowledge that they can still vote No in any future referendum.

Offline <k>

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Re: Scottish euros have come closer
« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2015, 06:10:22 PM »
I don't think disaffected Lib Dem voters turned to UKIP. The Lib Dems have been fiercely pro-EU since the start of the whole love-hate thing with Brussels in the run-up to the ratification of the Maastricht treaty in 1992. I doubt whether many people who support UKIP's view on the EU would ever have voted Lib Dem and vice versa. No: most of the "missing" Lib Dem votes went to the Tories in England and to the SNP in Scotland.

I did read, either today or yesterday (if only I could re-find the article), of a LibDem voter who had switched to UKIP. However, I would agree that the majority of "believing" LibDem voters would not vote UKIP. In 2010 some people voted for the Lib Dems as a protest vote - those who disliked the Brown/Blair Labour party or who still heavily associated the Conservatives with Mrs Thatcher. This time many protest votes will have gone to UKIP, the Greens or the SNP.

In this country, because of the first-past-the-post system, some people vote tactically. If you want to vote LibDem but know that the main contest in your constituency is between the Conservative and Labour candidates, you may prefer to vote Labour if you strongly dislike the Conservatives, or Conservative if you despise Labour. If we had proportional representation, we could get rid of tactical voting. "Protest" votes would still exist, of course.

Offline Alan71

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Re: Scottish euros have come closer
« Reply #4 on: May 09, 2015, 11:39:41 PM »
The SNP favoured keeping the pound in any future independent Scotland.  The UK tried scare tactics and said they couldn't do this, but there is no real barrier to currency union with the UK.  Ireland did it for decades, and the British Overseas Territories still do (admittedly they are much smaller than Scotland).  Any talk of the Euro being introduced in Scotland is premature.

Offline augsburger

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Re: Scottish euros have come closer
« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2015, 01:57:43 PM »
One comment from <k>'s analysis, which I otherwise broadly agree with: I don't think disaffected Lib Dem voters turned to UKIP. The Lib Dems have been fiercely pro-EU since the start of the whole love-hate thing with Brussels in the run-up to the ratification of the Maastricht treaty in 1992. I doubt whether many people who support UKIP's view on the EU would ever have voted Lib Dem and vice versa. No: most of the "missing" Lib Dem votes went to the Tories in England and to the SNP in Scotland.

The SNP's performance in the election is also not indicative of a desire for independence, for two reasons. Firstly, the SNP got 50% of the vote in Scotland, but 95% of the seats thanks to the backward, undemocratic and morally bankrupt electoral system. 50% of Scots who voted at all voted for some other party, all of which with the exception of the Greens campaigned for No in the referendum. Secondly, Scots know that independence is not going to be thrust upon them without a referendum, regardless of how much of a one-party state the SNP turns Scotland into. Therefore, Scottish supporters of the Union can safely vote for the SNP for other reasons - such as that they agree with the party's left-of-centre policies which are no longer espoused by Labour - confident in the knowledge that they can still vote No in any future referendum.

I'm not sure disaffected Lib Dems went Tory actually. This would be crazy. So, you hate your party because they sold their soul to the devil by joining the Tories and supporting their destruction of the NHS and education, and then you show your disaffection by voting Tory and giving them a majority. It makes no sense.

I looked at St Ives and Berwick, two seats which went from Lib Dem to Tory, and it seems that many Lib Dems still voted Lib Dem, but some went to Labour, some went to UKIP, and this reduced the Lib Dem vote and gave the Tories more chances of getting in. UKIP supporters knew this too, and ended up voting Tory.


Offline <k>

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Re: Scottish euros have come closer
« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2015, 02:55:31 PM »
The Lib Dems got 23% of the national vote in 2010 and 7.9% in 2015.  Labour increased its percentage from 29% to 30.4%.

I had cause to visit the local hospital recently for two tests and got served amazingly quickly. Given all the propaganda about "destruction", I found it to be amazingly efficient. Most governments, including even Mrs Thatcher's, have increased spending on the NHS. It's not in the interests of any party to destroy it.

Offline augsburger

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Re: Scottish euros have come closer
« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2015, 03:15:22 PM »
The Lib Dems got 23% of the national vote in 2010 and 7.9% in 2015.  Labour increased its percentage from 29% to 30.4%.

I had cause to visit the local hospital recently for two tests and got served amazingly quickly. Given all the propaganda about "destruction", I found it to be amazingly efficient. Most governments, including even Mrs Thatcher's, have increased spending on the NHS. It's not in the interests of any party to destroy it.

The Tories essentially withdraw money from things. At first they ride what was there beforehand. Then things start to deteriorate.
However the destruction isn't just a dismantling, it's a propaganda campaign that the "NHS is nearly bankrupt" and all of this nonsense, giving reasons for implementing private healthcare.

Also, many Labour supporters changed to vote Tory or UKIP. Many Lib Dem voters voted UKIP or Labour.

Offline <k>

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Re: Scottish euros have come closer
« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2015, 03:20:31 PM »
Quote
The Tories essentially withdraw money from things. At first they ride what was there beforehand. Then things start to deteriorate.
However the destruction isn't just a dismantling, it's a propaganda campaign that the "NHS is nearly bankrupt" and all of this nonsense, giving reasons for implementing private healthcare.

You give no evidence for this apocalyptic view. Anyway, I have not voted in any election since 2013, and this topic is about the euro, so I will leave it there.

Offline augsburger

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Re: Scottish euros have come closer
« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2015, 03:42:27 PM »
Plenty of evidence to back this up. However this isn't the place to do it, and I really don't want this forum to end up in ANOTHER attempted fight by a certain member of the forum.....

Offline FosseWay

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Re: Scottish euros have come closer
« Reply #10 on: May 10, 2015, 07:50:50 PM »
The SNP favoured keeping the pound in any future independent Scotland.  ...  Any talk of the Euro being introduced in Scotland is premature.

That is true in the context of last year's referendum, where the presumption of the Yes side was that both Scotland and the rest of the UK would have continued as members of the EU with the same preconditions as now. But things have changed and will change even more if the UK leaves the EU.

It is generally agreed that one doesn't run endless independence or devolution referendums in a short space of time - there was one in the 1970s, one in the late 1990s and one in 2014. On that basis, there won't be another for at least a decade. The exception to that is if there are other significant constitutional changes that make a lot of people likely to change their mind. Now, after the election of a party promising a referendum on continued EU membership, the most likely cause of a referendum in the near future would be a decision by a majority of voters in the whole of the UK to leave the EU, while a majority of Scots remain in favour of membership. That would prompt debate about the continued relevance of the Union for Scotland.

A yes result would give an independent Scotland that was a member of the EU alongside England etc. outside the EU. In that situation the likelihood that Scotland would opt to retain sterling would be lower, and of the two alternatives - a specific Scottish currency and the euro - the euro is probably more likely.