Author Topic: Denmark, Poland and Iceland  (Read 13376 times)

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Offline Figleaf

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Denmark, Poland and Iceland
« on: November 03, 2008, 09:15:15 PM »
According to the Dutch press, Denmark, Poland and Iceland are considering fast accession to the euro as a consequence of the current financial crisis. If so, it would be hard to refuse Denmark and Poland, but the current users have much more leverage now to demand strict measures as the price for entry. Iceland has been financially unstable almost since independence and its understaffed central bank makes the country a haven for whitewashing criminals and fugitives and therefore an unattractive new participant. Meanwhile, the British pound looks more and more provincial, alongside the Swedish krona, the Norwegian krone and the Swiss franc...

Peter
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BC Numismatics

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Denmark, Poland and Iceland.
« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2008, 09:32:41 PM »
Peter,
  Doesn't Iceland have to join the E.U. first before it can join the Eurozone? In theory,Iceland could unilaterally change over to the Euro in the same way that both Kosovo & Montenegro have done.

Aidan.

translateltd

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Re: Denmark, Poland and Iceland
« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2008, 09:38:22 PM »
Meanwhile, the British pound looks more and more provincial,
Peter

And long may it stay that way!!!


BC Numismatics

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Denmark, Poland and Iceland.
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2008, 09:45:26 PM »
Martin,
  Abandoning the Pound Sterling would be like throwing out the baby with the water.If the U.K. ever did change over to the Euro,it would spell the end of distinctive banknotes in Scotland,Ulster,Gibraltar,the Isle of Man,& the Channel Islands as well as their own coins.

Aidan.

Offline chrisild

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Re: Denmark, Poland and Iceland
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2008, 12:47:35 AM »
Let the British have the , let us have the - has worked fine for quite a few years, and I hope it continues to work this way. Now Denmark is a different story; the country is in ERM-II anyway (with a much narrower fluctuation band than the other participating currencies) so in a sense they already have the euro. The Danish prime minister has recently hinted at a possible date for the referendum - 2011.

Sweden and Poland, I don't know. Tusk sure has an ambitious schedule, a little too ambitious in my opinion. And Sweden ... well, maybe in 10 or 20 years.

Right, Iceland could introduce the euro like Montenegro did. Don't think that Iceland will be in the European Union very soon. The country is already an EEA member, so getting into the EU should not be overwhelmingly complicated. But it would still take some time. Commissioner Rehn said a few days ago he still thinks that Croatia will be in next, not Iceland ...

Christian

Offline Miguel.mateo

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Re: Denmark, Poland and Iceland
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2008, 02:56:22 AM »
There are so many rumors and different news about this topic.  Assuming the countries mentioned here wants to use the euro, then sumarizing:

  - Denmark: a fast track will have them using euros middle next year.  Their euros will need to be borrowed while their own euro productions stabilizes, mainly from Germany I would assume.
  - Sweden: a fast track will have them using euros towards 2011.  There are internal political issues to fix first, but if Denmark joins everyone agrees Sweeden will take not too long after that. Now, this fast track means that they will have to do lots of things in the the next months, so most likely not happening.
  - Poland: a fast track will have them using the euros in 2012.  There are reforms to do, mainly to meet the convergence criteria; but it is possible.
  - Iceland: not sure, I do not forthsee the ECB doing an exception to allow them using the euro without full membership like Kosovo (Kosovo is a different story, they never had their own currency) There could always be exceptions, but this is way out of my ball park to think about it.  Now, assuming full membership within a year, to meet convergence criteria, specially after all the recent problems, I see that quite difficult, but you never know ... some other exceptions may apply.
  - England: a fast track will have them using the euro in ∞ ... does that need explanation? :)  Honestly no clue, I do not see the need right now.

It is important to say that there are other countries fighting hard to join the Eurozone, you may see soon in the news improved plans for Lithuania, Slovenia, Estonia ... etc.

This is basically my understanding based on information provided by several sources.  I can always be wrong though.

Thanks,
Miguel
« Last Edit: November 04, 2008, 05:46:43 AM by Miguel.mateo »

Offline Miguel.mateo

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Re: Denmark, Poland and Iceland
« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2008, 03:01:25 AM »
BTW, if I am not mistake, Croatia already meets the convergence criteria.  Meaning, fast track for Croatia would be 2012.

Thanks,
Miguel
« Last Edit: November 04, 2008, 05:48:04 AM by Miguel.mateo »

Offline chrisild

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Re: Denmark, Poland and Iceland
« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2008, 11:02:13 AM »
Don't think there should, or will, be any fast tracks. The current economic crisis or uncertainty would be a terribly bad "catalyst" when it comes to introducing the euro. Of course it is true that being part of a pretty big currency union helps to avoid additional problems that stem from, hmm, currency juggling. And maybe some more people outside the euro area currently have similar views. However, the common currency is not exactly an umbrella that you use when the weather is rainy, and put aside or trash when the sun is there again. :)

In Denmark, Anders Fogh Rasmussen has repeatedly said there would be another referendum about the introduction of the euro. And while his (pro-euro) government initially wanted it to be fairly soon, they now aim at 2011. (At least that is what he said on Thursday.) That would be a little more than ten years after the previous euro referendum.

Sweden? They voted against the euro just five years ago. It seems silly to have them vote again now, only because the krona went down a little against the euro. Maybe in 2015 or so.

In Poland, the Tusk government is certainly not as opposed to the euro as president Kaczynski is. And judging from polls, many in the country actually support joining Euroland. It was a positive signal to say that PL aims at introducing the euro in 2012, but I think it was meant to say "we do not plan to postpone this till kingdom come". And a little coordination between the government and the central bank cannot hurt even though the NBP governor is in Kaczynski's camp rather than in Tusk's. ;)

Quote
It is important to say that there are other countries fighting hard to join the Eurozone, you may see soon in the news improved plans for Lithuania, Slovenia, Estonia ... etc.

Replace Slovenia (which is a euro country) by Latvia, and I agree. These three Baltic countries have been ERM-II members for years. So once they meet the other convergence criteria, they can be in the euro area. But I still think that after Slovakia (joining in two months) there won't be any new euro countries for quite a while ...

Christian

Offline Miguel.mateo

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Re: Denmark, Poland and Iceland
« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2008, 01:19:27 PM »
The main difference for those non-euro countries is funding, it is not the same when you have the ECB to fund you than when you have the National Poland Bank, for example.  That is the rush for some.  Similar situation applies to Denmark, they have had to put so much money in the market just to keep the krona pegged to the euro, that it is actually cheaper to adopt the euro all the way.  You might see some surprises in the next few years, but I will not be shock if no-one joins as you said.

Slovenia was a mistake, of course I know theu are in euroland, I have their two sets already ;)

Thanks,
Miguel

Offline NumisMatty

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Re: Denmark, Poland and Iceland
« Reply #9 on: November 13, 2008, 05:39:24 AM »
Provincial??  ???
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Offline Figleaf

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Re: Denmark, Poland and Iceland
« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2008, 08:49:25 PM »
In the Roman sense: an outpost, a local curiosity. ;)

Peter
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Offline Afrasi

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Re: Denmark, Poland and Iceland
« Reply #11 on: August 17, 2009, 11:32:57 PM »
Here is the new 2 Euro coin of Iceland!    ;)




« Last Edit: August 18, 2009, 11:20:40 AM by Figleaf »

Offline chrisild

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Re: Denmark, Poland and Iceland
« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2009, 01:04:42 AM »
Hehe, nice idea. But 2010 ... no way. And the article "around" that photo also suggests that instead of a fast track there way well be a long way.

Christian

Offline Figleaf

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Re: Denmark, Poland and Iceland
« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2009, 01:34:01 AM »
I like the idea of the sprouting marihuana plant. ;) Iceland has very cheap electricity and as an export industry, it's more innocent than whitewashing crooked money, but please, not another map series to collect and if you must have another map, couldn't Iceland be drawn in its proper place, rather than where Greenland used to be?

Peter
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Offline Miguel.mateo

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Re: Denmark, Poland and Iceland
« Reply #14 on: August 18, 2009, 07:39:36 AM »
Where are you guys looking at?  The picture I see shows a tale of a whale ... or did I miss something?

BTW, this "design" does not meet the recent set of recommendations of the ECB, so this is most likely a nice Photoshop file.

Regards,
Miguel