1938+ 1/4 rupee Coin

[brokencompass]

I have noticed that almost 90% of post 1938 50% silver coins have a very weak strike. Having gone through many groups, I gave given up on finding a specimen in the likes of MS 65. Anyone feel the same way about these coins too?

[Harry]

Based on your post I took some time to study the NGC census for Mint State (Uncirculated) coins for BI regal issues 1862-1945 Rupee and 1/4 Rupee.  Your "feelings" that post 1938/39 1/4 rupees in MS65 are hard to find are confirmed by the numbers I found, in fact there are no 1940-45 1/4 graded MS65 or higher by NGC ! That's 0! Not sure if PCGS has graded any but this does show that gems of 1940-45 1/4 rupees are rare.

I crunched some numbers in excel to study GEMS (MS65 or higher) for the regal issued 1/4  Rupee and 1 Rupee coins. "Total Graded" includes ALL MS coins business strike, proofs and restrikes graded by NGC and here is what I found:

[Corrected and updated on Feb 28th, 2012:  The numbers for the Rupees were incorrect and now have been corrected]

1.    1938-1945 1/4 Rupee have very few GEMS (MS65 or higher) in fact only 2 out of 24 are graded MS65 or higher.
2.   Its very interesting to note that KGV coins 1 Rupee and 1/4 Rupees have the least percentages of gems graded.  See the yellow highlighted line in the pic.
3.      Percentage wise 1/4 Rupee have more gems than 1 Rupees even though 1/4 Rupees are more scarcer than the 1 Rupee. This could be because the 1 Rupee coin is a larger and heavier coin.

[natko]

I would say it's because of the second head which has generally much lower relief than first head.

[Harry]

My point #3 that there are 80% gems of 1 Rupees does not seem correct. I'll recheck the data.

[brokencompass]

Very informative analysis Harry! I however think your data that a very high percentage of the regal rupees are 65-70 doesn't sound right. As far as I know very few make the 65-70 cut and not as high as 90% in some cases.

[Harry]

Very informative analysis Harry! I however think your data that a very high percentage of the regal rupees are 65-70 doesn't sound right. As far as I know very few make the 65-70 cut and not as high as 90% in some cases.

Yes there was an error in my calculations, this has been corrected. For the Rupee coins out of the NGC graded MS coins only 8% are gems.  I have updated my original post with the corrected numbers.  So it does show that KGV gems are rare for the 1 Rupee and 1/4 Rupee.

[Harry]

I also checked the NGC data for 1/2 Rupee and there are no 1938-1945 1/2 Rupee graded MS65 or higher, so far!  Not sure if PCGS has any 1 Rupee or 1/2 Rupee 1938-45 that they have graded MS65 or higher.

[Figleaf]

The stats are fun and so is the table, but the numbers are too small for hard conclusions. A small change can upset the whole table.

Suppose someone finds a well preserved lot of 6 rupees 1942 tomorrow and this company, in its infinite wisdom , grades them all MS65. This would instantly make the percentages 91 and 9, no different from the rest, just by one small find.

Peter

[PeaceBD]

The stats are fun and so is the table, but the numbers are too small for hard conclusions. A small change can upset the whole table.

Suppose someone finds a well preserved lot of 10 rupees 1942 tomorrow and this company, in its infinite wisdom , grades them all MS65. This would instantly make the percentages 91 and 9, no different from the rest, just by one small find.

Peter

Peter, you make a very valid point. No one knows how many coins are out there stored/hoarded and which have never seen the light of day. The top pop game has no meaning when the pool of coins graded is so small. You explained it nicely. I say buy the coins which appeal to you. If it turns out to be a top pop remember its not going to stay that way for too long.

BC, I agree with your observation. The post 1938 coins have very low relief and finding a nicely stuck coin would be more rewarding than a finding a lightly stuck coin in a MS65 slab.

BD

[Harry]

The stats are fun and so is the table, but the numbers are too small for hard conclusions. A small change can upset the whole table.

Correct, the numbers are too small to come to any final conclusion but it does show some trends.

[brokencompass]

Also most people wouldn't send these 1938+ 1/4 rupees for grading since these coins cost far less than the grading price. They only send it if they think it might crack a good grade. So I get the feeling that these numbers may not be very skewed.